Over the last few days, the small group of Orange Order members at Drumcree Church have marched down the hill towards Garvaghy Road, only to be stopped by Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) officers.

The short procession has happened many times since Sunday morning. The encounters at the bottom have been described as “confrontations” or “standoffs”. In reality, they have been both brief and polite.

And they are in sharp contrast to the scenes that played out here 30 years ago when rolls of barbed wire filled the surrounding fields to block flanking movements by angry loyalist protesters.

Up to Sunday evening, the only people who were around the Church of Ireland church at Drumcree were the 35 Orangemen permitted to be there by the Parades Commission, plus a few journalists.

That strategy was deliberate – sending out a message that the Orange Order had the backing of the courts, that it was following the rules and that only the most unreasonable could regard such a parade as a threat.

That discipline has wavered since, with the arrival of a few hundred supporters of the Orange Order on Sunday night. By Monday night, less than a hundred such people were there, with many coming and going.

All of this may prove of importance in the days ahead. Loyalist influencer Jamie Bryson – a law graduate but not a barrister or solicitor – insists he could put 10,000 in the surrounding fields.

Perhaps so, perhaps not.

So far, the rest of Portadown has gone about its business, bar the couple of hundred loyalists who gathered at the end of Water Street – between Garvaghy Road and the centre of town – until the early hours of Tuesday.

There are many unknowns in all of this. One is: when does a legally permitted parade lose the cover of that legal protection?

The Parades Commission gave permission to the Orange Order to march on Sunday, September 27th, but that does not mean that permission is open-ended. Nor, however, has it been formally revoked.

They were required to leave Drumcree Church by 8 am on Sunday and to disperse at the Orange Hall on Carleton Street in the centre of Portadown by 9.30 am, with no bands, flags, banners or accompanying supporters.

The relevant legislation governing parades is section 6 of the Public Processions (Northern Ireland) Act 1998, with subsection 4 saying details must be given of the date and time of a parade, as well as its routes and the numbers involved.

It goes on to declare that if the parade takes place at a different time or date, or varies from the granted route, then those involved “shall be guilty of an offence” under the parades legislation.

But what if a parade is unable to go ahead because it is blocked from doing so? Section 6 (9) offers a defence if a parade happens late because of circumstances beyond organisers’ control.

In addition, organisers can get extra time if their actions are done with the agreement of a member of the PSNI. However, this does not mean the Parades Commission’s determination automatically changes.

The commission was rebuked by the High Court for failing to deal properly with the Orange Order’s original Drumcree application, because some commissioners had not even read the paperwork properly.

On one level, perhaps you can have sympathy: the commission had refused permission to the Orange Order to walk Garvaghy for 27 years, so why would anyone have thought this year would be any different?

However, when such handling is brought out under the cold light of a court, then it is hard to defend. Rebuked, the commission considered again, getting a security assessment from the PSNI.

Because so much of the detailed paperwork in all of this has not been published, confusion remains over what the PSNI told the commission and, more importantly, how it told them.

The Parades Commission says it granted permission because the PSNI had said a march could take place without major public order issues because there had not been trouble for decades.

If there is doubt about what the PSNI said, there is less doubt about what it would say about a fresh application, because it certainly could not say now that there would be no public order consequences.

Local Orange leader Nigel Dawson says the commission’s determination has not changed, and this is true, but that is not the same thing as saying the Orange Order can stay in Drumcree indefinitely and walk on any date they like.

Such detail is complex, but it bears heavily on the talks in Hillsborough to settle the controversy. The Orange Order is demanding a written guarantee that its permission remains valid before being prepared to consider anything else.

The Garvaghy Road residents want the opposite, and local leader Breandán Mac Cionnaith wants the appointment of an international mediator to settle the dispute, not someone local.

There are other issues, too, that need to be considered. From a distance, it may look like the Garvaghy Road residents and Sinn Féin are in lock-step. However, the reality on the ground is far, far more complicated, with tensions aplenty.

MacCoinnaith parted company with Sinn Féin 20 years ago over its decision to support the PSNI. Today, he is a member of Éirígí, the politically dissident republican group. Others on Garvaghy share his views.

Equally, some of the people who have turned up on Garvaghy Road from outside the area in the last few days are not just politically dissident, but known dissident republicans who have supported violence. However, many locals have worked to put manners on younger elements in balaclavas, making it clear to them they are not to behave aggressively. So far, such warnings have been heeded.

The tensions have perhaps forced Sinn Féin – who, somewhat contradictorily, are the ones locals vote for in elections – to be even more vocal than the residents in a bid to avoid accusations of not being vocal enough.