ELECTION: Pro-independence parties tipped for big majority

The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times suggests that pro-independence parties could win 79 of the Scottish Parliament’s 129 seats come the 6 May vote, it was revealed at the weekend.

With nearly half of the constituency vote, Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP would win a narrow outright majority with 65 seats, the Scottish Greens are predicted to win eight seats, and Alex Salmond’s new Alba Party are forecast to win six.

Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond and George Galloway.

These results would represent a disastrous setback for unionism, with one notable exception.

While Labour and the Conservatives look likely to fall back, maverick former MP George Galloway, who once sought the Labour nomination in Dumbarton but was defeated by John McFall (now Lord Alcluith) could be elected in the South of Scotland as a unionist for All for Unity.

Writing in The Sunday Times, polling expert Sir John Curtice from University of Strathclyde said: “Alba is appealing to a section of the nationalist movement that wants a rapid timetable for indyref2 and which still admires Salmond.”

a man wearing a suit and tie holding a cell phone: Professor Sir John Curtice analysed the poll Professor Sir John Curtice analysed the poll

The survey predicted the Scottish Conservatives would take 24 seats, Scottish Labour on 20, and the Liberal Democrats on five.

Panelbase surveyed 1,009 adults in Scotland between 30 March and 1 April.

If the SNP do win an outright majority, and pro-independence parties dominate the Scottish Parliament, Prime Minister Boris Johnson would be under huge pressure to accept that they have a democratic mandate for a new vote on independence.

But Alex Salmond’s apparent political comeback isn’t just being driven by the constitution.

Former UKIP and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage told The Times this week: “We are very similar, Alex and I.”

Mr Farage said it could be a “game changer” if Mr Salmond aimed to align an independent Scotland to a UK single market, rather than the European Union.

In a country that voted overwhelmingly Remain it was, perhaps, an unwelcome endorsement – Mr Salmond was quick to say that he’s “no Farage”. But his endorsement does hint at something else going on in Scottish politics.

Some Conservative activists have picked up leakage of their support to Mr Galloway’s robust unionism and, wait for it, Alba. In both cases, it is what one insider described as the “angry white men of a certain age vote”.

It’s a reminder that, even in Scotland, not everything is about the constitution.

One of the most bitter dividing lines in the SNP has been over trans rights, with those who support Mr Salmond tending to be sceptical of what they see as “the wokerati”.

If he returns to the Scottish Parliament, the former first minister might back his successor Ms Sturgeon over independence – but he could also prove to be her most difficult opponent.



  1. How much do the NATO/Vatican head choppers pay you, Bill? Is it by the article or the bag o’shite? Bar “the maverick,” all of the above Western mass murdering imperialists have waged 10+ years of war on the Syrians and the rest. There was no WMD in Iraq, they do not have a parking ticket to pin on Assad and Gaddafi was not killing his own people like the Amnesty liars said, before they wiped another country off the face of the earth.

    The Syrians are now into their 3rd wave of covid19 because of the war and because they have no control over the movements of terrorists sponsored by yours truly. In broad daylight….in broad daylight, the US have been stealing $billions of Syrian oil and now they are robbing their wheat by the truck load into the bargain. The US is not even bothered to lie about it because they know full well British journalists will do them proud as good friends and allies in their fake fight for “Freedom, Democracy and Human Rights.” We all know the truth is a fine thing….except when it is a pack of lies.

    How on earth you can call this bloodbath since 9/11 “democracy” takes some beating. It makes Hitler and the Nazis look like Santa Claus. That is 37+ million displaced and 10s of millions killed and maimed, raped and robbed.

    Some “Christians.”

  2. A super majority in the next Scottish Parliament will give Scotland the voice to resist Boris Johnston and his right wing conservative band.

    My own feeling is that the majority will be much bigger than 79 seats. People know that the Scottish Parliament is their parliament, on their side, whereas Westminster is not.

    The new Alba party is not yet even two weeks old and already making big inroads. And the beauty of it is that voting for ALB with one’s second vote does not take away from the SNP who are predicted to do very well but not secure a majority in a system designed against them (ergo in 2016 nearly 954,000 votes secured only 4 SNP seats whereas 956,000 votes secured 45 unionist seats )

    SNP 1 and SNP 2 thus makes much much much sense.

    Only through a strong Scottish Parliament will we become the fair and equitable country that we want to be. Lets give it a chance for we will not get another opportunity. The Conservatives in Westminster will see to that.

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