By Bill Heaney

It’s only just begun. Speculation is mounting though on the future of Nicola Sturgeon as leader of the SNP – and thoughts are already turning to her replacement.

The First Minister has endured a miserable week, with her proposed gender recognition reforms blowing up in her face with the case of double rapist Isla Bryson.

Ms Sturgeon has been tipped for a future role in the UN and political commentators are now openly discussing when she will stand down – or be forced out.

Her former special adviser Màiri McAllan is emerging as the next politician to get the key to Bute House.

Ms McAllan has been an MSP for under two years. Born in 1993, she was unsuccessful when she ran for Westminster in 2017 but won the Clydesdale seat in the 2021 Holyrood poll.

Less than a fortnight after her election, Ms McAllan became Minister for Environment, Biodiversity and Land Reform.

Despite an uneventful time in government, many have her down – along with finance secretary Kate Forbes, who is currently on maternity leave – as the most likely contenders once Ms Sturgeon goes.

Eddie Barnes, who has advised both Ruth Davidson and Anas Sarwar in the past, said the “smart money” was on Ms Sturgeon either quitting or being forced out after the general election, which is likely to take place towards the end of next year.

He said her departure “could easily be sooner than we think” and said all parties should start planning for post-Sturgeon Scotland.

Writing in the Scottish Daily Mail, Barnes warned Unionists that her departure could galvanise the SNP. He said: “…it’s easy to see how Miss Sturgeon’s departure from office will actually provide the SNP with the refreshment the party so obviously needs.

“The First Minister is today associated with the absence of delivery: over healthcare, over ferries, over education, over the lot. And polling shows that she is becoming as divisive a figure today as Alex Salmond once was.

“Just as the First Minister provided a less abrasive, more consensual alternative to Mr Salmond when she took over in 2014, so it’s possible to imagine a new, young leader emerging from the SNP to do exactly the same. Miss Sturgeon is not going to be Scotland’s Jacinda Ardern. But her successor – be it a figure like Kate Forbes or Mairi McAllan – might.”

Barnes wrote that, while Ms Sturgeon would claim she had no plans to quit, the “tell-tale signs of decline are there”.

He said the FM was focusing on her own reputation rather than ‘achievements’ and accused her of repeating the same claims she made in 2015 about doing deals with Labour, likening her to a “sad” comedian who keeps on telling the same jokes.

He said the “muddle” over gender reform had “widened the number of formerly devoted SNP supporters who are wondering whether their leader’s judgment might be (whisper it) fallible”.

He added: “Quite how and exactly when Miss Sturgeon is either pushed or jumps is a matter of speculation, but it is assuredly on its way.”

The SNP has so far refused to comment on speculation about their leader’s future. The party has faced internal disruption due to gender reform with the biggest-ever SNP rebellion at Holyrood taking place in December.

The ousting of Ian Blackford as the party’s Commons leader for Stephen Flynn was also viewed as a blow to Ms Sturgeon’s authority.

She has been SNP leader since November 2014 after being elected unopposed as Alex Salmond’s successor. She was then appointed First Minister.