By Bill Heaney
Affordable housing targets are at risk of being missed entirely, Scottish Labour has warned today, as an internal document reveals a litany of problems plaguing the SNP’s flagship house-building scheme.
A government document obtained by FOI reveals internal chaos, with civil servants warning that slow house-building and cuts to funding are threatening affordable housing targets.
The Affordable Housing Supply Programme is supposed to deliver 110,000 affordable homes by 2032 – but the programme’s risk register warns there may be a “high” risk that affordable housing targets could be missed altogether.
The document warns that insufficient funding could pose a threat to the targets – but the 2023/24 budget cut almost £200 million from house-building, slashing the funding by more than a quarter.
It also warns there is a high risk that the 110,000 target may not be achieved if social rented approvals and starts are not progressed in time to allow completion by March 2032.
Labour recently highlighted declining rates of approvals and starts, which show that in 2023 affordable housing starts and approvals were both at their lowest point since 2015, plummeting by 42 per cent and 50 per cent respectively since 2020.
The document also raises concerns about pressures on local government budgets and shortages in skills and materials, among other things.
Griffin warned that problems in house-building plans were spiralling “out of control”, with all sixteen issues highlighted on the list currently marked with a risk score higher than its target.
Scottish Labour Housing spokesperson Mark Griffin, pictured right, said: “Scotland is in the grips of a growing housing crisis, but our affordable housing programme is in chaos. It’s clear Shona Robison ignored a string of warnings and left a trail of destruction in her wake.
“Problems are spiralling out of control, casting doubt on key SNP election pledges to build more affordable homes.
“The stakes are far too high for this scheme to join the SNP’s long list of broken promises and abandoned plans.”
| Social Justice, Housing and Local Government | 2022-23
Scottish £million |
2023-24
Scottish £million |
Real Terms Change 2023-24 on 2022-23 | % Change
2023-24 |
| Total – More Homes | 763.000* | 567.471 | 195.529 | 26% |
Source: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-2023-24/documents/
*Adjusted to 2023/24 prices using the SPICe inflation calculator.
Chart 11: Affordable homes approved and started, years to end March, 2015 – 2023
| Stage | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Approvals | 6,293 | 7,878 | 10,410 | 11,626 | 11,127 | 12,880 | 7,885 | 7,820 | 6,396 |
| Starts | 6,637 | 7,615 | 9,442 | 10,518 | 10,869 | 12,039 | 10,151 | 8,227 | 6,987 |
Affordable Housing Supply Programme Risk Register, February 2023. Obtained by FOI and available on request:
| Risk Description | Current Risk Score | Target Risk Score |
| IF:social rented approvals and starts are not progressed in time to allow completion by March 2032
THEN: this could lead to the target to deliver 70% social homes not being deliveredTHIS COULD RESULT IN: the 110k target not being achieved. |
100 | 20 |
| IF: Tender prices continue to rise THEN: This could lead to an increase in grant and private borrowing requirements and negative impacts on stakeholder business planning THIS COULD RESULT IN: Stakeholders withdrawing or reducing their planned development activity with a knock on effect to delivery of the 110k target |
100 | 10 |
| IF: There is insufficient levels of capital funding available over the current parliament THEN: this could lead to a slowing down of delivery THIS COULD RESULT IN: A threat to the realistic prospect of delivering 110k affordable homes by 2032. |
75 | 10 |
| IF: MHD Staff leave due to promotion or retirement and/or there is a freeze on recruitment THEN: the capacity of the Division to deliver the 110k target will be reduced as well as improve and maintain current levels of service THIS COULD RESULT IN: Reputational damage and less effective working relationships |
50 | 10 |
| IF: a significant number of RSLs and Local Authorities are unable to ramp up their programmes in line with RPAs THEN: SG may be unable to deliver at the pace required and there might be budget underspend THIS COULD RESULT IN: delays to delivery of affordable homes and reduce likelhood of meeting the 110k target |
40 | 10 |
| IF: There are insufficient skilled construction workers, or IF: there are problems with Labour retention on sites THEN: there could be increased costs and difficulties fully expending our annual budget THIS COULD RESULT IN: delays to delivery of affordable homes and reduce likelihood of meeting the target |
40 | 20 |
|
IF: There is insufficient supply of materials THEN: there could be increased costs and difficulties fully expending our annual budget THIS COULD RESULT IN: delays to delivery of affordable homes and reduce likelihood of meeting the target |
30 | 20 |
| IF: The programme is over reliant on a small number of large housing projects or programmes, and there are one or more systemic changes such as: (a) significant expansion in mortgage lending (b) house prices drop in a local area THEN: one or more large projects may be delayed or scaled back because |
30 | 20 |
| IF: LA and RSL budget pressures mean they are unable to recruit or retain sufficient skilled staff in key areas (housing, planning, CPOs, warrants) THEN: there may be delays in approving planning applications and progressing housing projects. THIS COULD RESULT IN: delays to delivery of affordable homes and reduce likelihood of meeting the target |
30 | 20 |
| IF: Workload associated with Ukrainian Resettlement Programme increases THEN: there could be increased pressures on both More Homes Division and external delivery partners’ staff time THIS COULD RESULT IN: further slowing of delivery against the 110k target and reduced available budgets |
30 | 10 |
| IF: there is an over reliance on a small number of contractors particularly in rural areas THEN: this could lead to delays and increased costs due to limited tenders, restrictions due to procurement frameworks or to gaps in delivery should they go into receivership THIS COULD RESULT IN: The 110k target not being met by 2032 |
30 | 20 |
| IF: HARP move from DMZ to cloud based storage is not in place before decommisioning of DMZ THEN: Data could be compromised and payment and applications processing affected for SG and external stakeholders THIS COULD RESULT IN: reputational damage and impact on programme management and monitoring/reporting |
30 | 10 |
| IF: The pressures of delivering EESH2 and retrofit agenda as well as new homes becomes too onerous for stakeholder business plans THEN: Stakeholders may withdraw or reduce planned development activity THIS COULD RESULT IN: Further slowing of the delivery of affordable homes and difficulties delivering in some geographies |
30 | 10 |
| IF: Budget underspend is not identified early enough THEN: there may be insufficient time to effectively reallocate or redistribute funds within the AHSP or Directorate THIS COULD RESULT IN: growing funding gap over the longer term and the 110k target not able to delivered |
20 | 10 |
| IF: expected delivery of affordable housing through Section 75s doesn’t materialise at the pace required THEN:this could lead to potential delays THIS COULD RESULT IN: delays to delivery of affordable homes and reduce likelihood of meeting the target |
20 | 10 |
| IF: As a direct result of COVID there is further impact on labour and supplies as well as staffing levels in RSLs/LAs/SG THEN: The pace of delivery could be adversely affected. THIS COULD RESULT IN: Budget underspends and failure to meet the 110k target by 2032 |
10 | 5 |