By Bill Heaney
Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf would be among the victims of a wipe-out for the SNP at the next Scottish Parliament election in 2026., according to new analysis.
The two former first ministers face the humiliation of losing their seat – given that they stick around for the fight, of course.
Polling by Savanta has suggested Labour would overtake the SNP as the biggest party at Holyrood when the nation goes to the polls in 2026.
Now, political data site Ballot Box Scotland has crunched the numbers to see how the political map would look.
Ms Sturgeon has yet to say if she will stand down at the next election having quit as SNP leader last year. However, she has been making moves towards a post-Holyrood career and the potential for an actual electoral fight may be enough to make the decision for her.
Mr Yousaf could stick it out at Holyrood but may need to rely on the regional list in order to win a seat. Elsewhere, First Minister John Swinney will also face an uncomfortable time with the Tories tipped to score a victory in his backyard.
The Conservatives are forecast to win Jim Fairlie’s Perthshire South and Kinross-shire seat, right next to Mr Swinney’s own Perthshire North constituency.
Other high-profile SNP figures sweating over their seats include the new Health Secretary Neil Gray (Airdrie and Shotts), Angus Robertson (Edinburgh Central) and Mairi McAllan (Clydesdale).
Ballot Box Scotland predicts Holyrood will include 47 Labour MSPs compared with 35 for the Nats, down from the 64 they won in 2021. While that leaves Labour short of a majority, it will mean there will no longer be a nationalist majority at Holyrood for the first time since 2012.
The Tories would drop to 24 seats with the Lib Dems on 12 and the Greens on 11.
Meanwhile, the General Election is just around the corner and it won’t just be about Sarwar and Sunak.
Labour will be hoping the red tide is still flowing by then, but it seems unlikely that it will be lapping on the shores of the former Labour and Communist stronghold of Clydebank.
It is much more likely that Martin Docherty Hughes MP will retain that seat for the SNP. His Labour opponent is West Dunbartonshire’s Provost Douglas McAllister, who is viewed by some as a powder puff politician.
Martin Docherty-Hughes MP, Provost Douglas McAllister, Jean Ann Mitchell with Jeremy Corbyn and Labour council leader Martin Rooney.
The council’s poor showing in relation to issues such as the closure of Balloch Community Library despite being given the opportunity to right an SNP wrong in one of the most deprived parts of the constituency will go against him.
As will frequent very public pleas on social media and the local press to Labour Group leader to “come out from under the bed” and demonstrate a clearer public profile for himself and for his policies.
There is also the fact that Labour made a monstrous mistake at the last Westminster election by handing the red rosette to political Rookie Jean Ann Mitchell, who quit the party after the SNP victory was announced.