By Democrat reporter
A new poll has found the SNP maintains a strong lead over Scottish Labour for both Holyrood and Westminster as support for independence remains 50:50, according to the [Glasgow] Herald.
The Survation Survey on behalf of Edinburgh-based research agency Diffley Partnership which took place between the 16th and 22nd April 2025, found that the SNP commanded a clear lead over its rivals in voting intentions for both elections.
The poll also surveyed how respondents would vote in an independence referendum: 49% reported that they would vote Yes, while 51% would vote No.
The survey asked 1,005 Scots how they would vote in Scottish Parliament and Westminster parliament elections as well as how they would vote in an independence referendum.
In voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament, the SNP leads with 36% backing the party in the constituency vote. On the regional list, support stands at 28% – ahead of Labour, which polls at 22% in both ballots. The Scottish Conservatives come in at 13% for the constituency vote and 16% on the list.
Reform UK registers double-digit support, with 14% of respondents saying they would vote for the party in the constituency ballot and 12% in the list vote.
Analysis by Diffley Partnership for The Herald, found that this would leave the SNP with 57 seats in 2026, down 7 in comparison to the 2021 Holyrood election. Labour would gain three seats and have 25 MSPs while the Conservatives would plummet to 17, a decrease of 14.
Reform UK is projected to take 12 seats, the Lib Dems 8 and the Green 10.
When it comes to Westminster, 33% would support the SNP, 24% would support Labour, 15% would vote for Reform UK, and 14% for the Conservatives.
Scott Edgar, Senior Research Manager at Diffley Partnership said: “With the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections just a year away, this poll shows the SNP are in pole position to remain the largest party at Holyrood come next May.
“Despite Labour’s efforts in recent months, they have yet to make significant inroads into the SNP’s lead.
“Meanwhile, Reform UK’s polling performance indicates that they will be a force to be reckoned with at next year’s election.
“As the election approaches, all parties will be looking to seize the narrative, clearly articulate their vision, and make a compelling pitch to voters in what promises to be one of the most consequential elections since devolution.”
The SNP has said the latest polls shows that people are putting their trust in the SNP to deliver.
George Adam MSP said: “This poll shows clearly that the people of Scotland are putting their trust in the SNP to deliver in Government offer hope for a better future.
“People across Scotland are disappointed by Labour’s broken promises – and Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership has thus far been a litany of failures that have pulled vital support from Scotland’s pensioners, presided over soaring household bills and given billions to industrial projects in England – while treating Scotland as an afterthought.
“Under John Swinney’s leadership, the Scottish Parliament is delivering on the issues that matter most to people in Scotland – improving the NHS, taking tangible action on the cost of living and investing in our public services.
“While these polls are encouraging, the SNP takes no vote for granted – and will continue to listen to the public, deliver for them in Government and work towards a brighter future for Scotland.”
However, the Scottish Conservatives have said that if the poll is replicated in the 2026 elections, the Reform vote will deliver a pro-indy majority and they describe the party as a “gift to the SNP”.
A Scottish Conservative spokesperson said: “This polling once again confirms that a vote for Reform will help deliver a pro-independence majority in Holyrood next year.
“John Swinney is talking them up at every opportunity because he knows they are a gift to the SNP.
“Under Russell Findlay’s leadership, we will continue to promote the common-sense values of mainstream Scotland and outline a positive conservative vision for the future of Scotland.”
Scottish Labour has been contacted for comment.