by BILL HEANEY
Andy Burnham has appeared to lay out conditions for a second independence referendum what the Scottish Daily Express has called “a betrayal of Scottish voters.”
The Prime Minister broke with his predecessors in saying a vote to leave the UK could be triggered if there was a “clear consensus” and “public opinion has changed to the point where the call has to be considered”.
Mr Burnham had previously rebuffed requests from John Swinney to transfer the power to hold a vote to Holyrood. The SNP leader has backtracked on his claim that an SNP majority in the May election was needed to push for a referendum, instead including the Scottish Greens in an anti-UK majority in the chamber.
The vast majority of Scots voters backed parties opposed to Scottish nationalism, as they did at the 2024 General Election, which handed Labour a huge mandate opposing an indyref2. Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland Harriet Cross MP said: “Andy Burnham has shown that he’s weak when it comes to defending the Union.
“By suggesting that Scotland and Northern Ireland are in the same situation, he has opened the door for the SNP to demand another independence referendum based on an opinion poll. The Good Friday Agreement contains specific, tailored provisions for Northern Ireland’s constitutional future based on its troubled past.
“There is no equivalent provision for Scotland, and the Prime Minister should know better than to blur that distinction. John Swinney will seize on this weakness to push his independence obsession at the expense of everything else. The Prime Minister should clarify his remarks and make clear that he will not cave into the SNP’s divisive demands.”
The current framework for a Border poll in Ireland was set out in the Good Friday Agreement and incorporated into UK law in the Northern Ireland Act in 1998. It gave power to the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to call a poll at any time, provided there had not been one for seven years.
They can also call one if it appears likely that a majority of people in Northern Ireland would vote for Irish unification, although a majority in the Republic would also be required. There is no detail as to how the Secretary should judge whether there is a majority.
Most opinion polls conducted in 2026 show more Scots back leaving the UK than want to remain, although only one shows an overall majority if don’t knows are included. Despite Mr Burnham’s comments, Downing Street insisted there had been no change in the Prime Minister’s position.
Mr Burnham’s press secretary said: “The PM’s been repeatedly clear on this. In his call with the Scottish First Minister in his first week, the PM stated upfront that another independence referendum was off limits and as our election manifesto makes clear, Labour does not support independence or another referendum.”
But Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay said: “Andy Burnham’s flaky answer suggests that a few opinion polls should be enough to trigger another divisive referendum. As a cheerleader for English devolution, the ex-Manchester mayor is clearly naive about the SNP’s obsession with breaking up the United Kingdom. He just doesn’t get it. The last thing Scotland needs is more constitutional chaos and upheaval.”
A poll in 2014, which delivered a decisive vote for the Union, was hailed as a “one-in-a-generation” event by nationalists, but Nicola Sturgeon later admitted she and her SNP colleagues were plotting a second vote just hours after the result was confirmed.
Top of page: Prime Minister Andy Burnham and First Minister John Swinney.