by BILL HEANEY
A report from the Defence Committee at Westminster today has warned that Britain must address serious military capability gaps in the North Sea.
And that the government and should consider whether the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) should focus more on threats in the region, particularly if the UK has to plan for uncertainty over US support for NATO.
The report states that to offset the effects of any greater JEF focus on the High North, the UK may need to consider building up the current British Army force in Estonia to brigade strength, matching what Germany is already undertaking in Lithuania.
It contains a warning of serious consequences if the High North, as it is known by the Royal Navy, is left inadequately defended.
Failure to deter Russia in the region, particularly from underwater threats, would put subsea data cables and energy pipelines in and around UK waters at particular risk during peacetime, the report has warned MPs.
It adds: “In the event of hostilities, failure to counter Russia in the High North would threaten the UK population, military and civilian critical national infrastructure, including the nuclear deterrent, and Atlantic resupply routes from the US.
Chair of the Defence Committee, Tan Dhesi MP, said: “The High North poses a major strategic challenge for the UK’s security. This is a demanding, hostile environment, and one that our greatest adversary, Russia, is seeking to dominate for military advantage.
“The UK needs to be willing to address a hard truth: it does not currently have all the capabilities to operate successfully in the High North.
“Russian submarine and sabotage forces in the High North pose direct risks to the North Atlantic and the UK, including the nuclear deterrent.
“Despite this, the Ministry of Defence has accepted a serious anti-submarine warfare gap. Publicly available evidence of low availability among destroyers, frigates and attack submarines calls into question whether the UK can meet its commitments in the High North.”
She added: “And if the UK government means what it says – that Russia could attack NATO as soon as 2030 – then work to rectify these vulnerabilities cannot start soon enough.
“Our Defence in the High North inquiry found that the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force has not yet realised its full potential. Although it was originally conceived as capable of operating across the full spectrum of conflict, and of covering both the High North and Baltic regions, its role has become increasingly focused on countering sub-threshold and hybrid threats.”
“Our report calls for the government to reassess the JEF’s role and consider whether it should focus more on countering threats in the High North, particularly if the UK has to plan for uncertainty over US support for NATO. The UK’s presence in the Baltics, particularly in Estonia, may need to be bolstered to offset the effects of any greater JEF focus on the High North.”
Capability gaps
Evidence of low availability among destroyers, frigates and attack submarines raises serious questions about whether the UK can meet its High North commitments before new capabilities enter service.
The Committee states there is concern that the Ministry of Defence has accepted a serious anti-submarine warfare gap. Reducing the fleet to five towed array sonar-equipped frigates, against a requirement for eight, weakens the UK’s ability to detect and track hostile submarines and raises questions about whether the transition from the Type 23 to the Type 26 frigate capability has been properly managed.
The Committee has called for no further towed array-equipped Type 23 frigates to leave service until they are replaced on a one-for-one basis by the new Type 26 vessels.
The report finds that the UK has allowed its submarine under-ice capability to lapse just as the High North has become strategically more important.
Without a credible under-ice capability, the UK is less able to contest Russian freedom of action in the High North and risks being forced into a more defensive posture. Russia can then use the ice to conceal and protect its own submarines while threatening NATO sea lanes, UK critical infrastructure and the UK’s nuclear deterrent.
Joint Expeditionary Force
The report calls on the UK to reassess the added value that JEF brings to European security within a year of assuming leadership of NATO’s Joint Force Norfolk.
It states that if the JEF is judged to add value, it should be strengthened and aligned more closely with NATO. The government should consider whether the JEF should focus more on the High North, concentrating finite resources on maximising its ability to operate in the region’s harsh climate and undertake the demanding anti-submarine warfare mission, rather than operating as often in the Baltic as previously.
Alongside this, the UK may need to consider building up the current British Army force in Estonia to brigade strength.