It’s close to midday on Sunday, December 8, 2024.
While most of us have hunkered down and sheltered from the icy blast of Storm Darragh blowing into the West of Scotland off the turbulent Atlanic Ocean, this insightful piece was the first item I read on the state of the world as we move forward towards Christmas.
It follows the visit of US President elect to Paris for the State opening of the Cathedral of Notre Dame on Bastille Day and the eve of the Feast of Immaculate Conception.
Written by the Editor of the Irish Times, it is well worth reading and ruminating on.
Good morning,
While Ireland’s political parties took the business of forming a new government at a leisurely pace, dramatic moves in Europe, the Middle East and Asia this week have shaken up the kaleidoscope of world events. The consequences could be far-reaching for all of us, not least because they are playing out against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s preparations to bring institutional disruption, if not chaos, to Washington.
The fall of Michel Barnier’s government after a no-confidence vote united France’s left and far-right and leaves Emmanuel Macron with few good options, with Macron ruling out stepping down as president. The crisis in Paris, elegantly contextualised in a column by Lara Marlowe, follows the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Berlin, risking a leadership vacuum in Europe as its two most powerful states are preoccupied with internal troubles.
France and Germany have both seen a rise in support for anti-immigration parties on the far-right since the civil war in Syria drove up to a million people to seek asylum in Europe a decade ago. That war has taken a dramatic turn with the remarkable advance of rebel forces from their stronghold in the northwest of the country to take control of Aleppo and Hama and by Sunday morning, entering the strategically crucial city of Homs and then Damascus itself.
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has only remained in power for the past 10 years because of military support from Russia, Iran and Hizbullah fighters. Russia and Iran appear to have abandoned him this week and Hizbullah has been depleted as a fighting force by Israel’s war on Lebanon, now in an uneasy ceasefire. Our correspondent Sally Hayden’s latest dispatch from Lebanon is worth reading.
Few tears will be shed for Assad, one of the most blood-soaked tyrants of the age, but as Michael Jansen explains, the success of opposition forces led by the Salafist, former al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) could generate ripples of instability across the region. The retreat of Iran and Russia from Syria and the emergence of Turkey as the main external power in the country will shift the geopolitical balance in the region.
Trump said on Saturday that the US should stay out of the unfolding events in Syria because “this is not our fight” and he is expected to withdraw US troops protecting Kurdish groups there. His America First approach to foreign policy could also see a downgrade of what the Biden administration called a “latticework” of alliances across Asia.
South Korea, one of America’s most important allies in the region, is in turmoil after president Yoon Suk-Yeol’s six-hour imposition of martial law this week. An attempt to impeach him failed on Saturday but the opposition parties, supported by large crowds on the streets and the country’s trade unions, remain determined to drive him from office.
Like the events in France and Syria, the drama in South Korea has potential repercussions far beyond its borders and, as our China Correspondent Denis Staunton explains, Yoon’s departure could see an important shift in Seoul’s policy towards China.
Lenin may never have uttered the dictum attributed to him that “there are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen”. One way or another, this has been one of those weeks.
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
Top of page picture: President Macron greets President elect Donald Trump in Paris for the re-opening of Notre Dame Cathdral.