by Democrat reporter
PROFESSOR John Curtice has given his verdict on a new Holyrood poll from Ipsos.
The survey of 1061 Scots, published on Wednesday, found that 35% of people would vote SNP in their constituency, almost double the 18% who would back their nearest rival, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Labour’s vote, meanwhile, has dropped by seven points since the last Ipsos poll, sitting on 16%.
And Dame Jackie Baillie’s Dumbarton seat at Holyrood looks to be on a shaky nail, despite the fact she has been at Holyrood since the parliamen’s inception.
According to Ballot Box Scotland’s seat projections, those results would give the SNP 60 seats in Holyrood’s 129-member parliament if repeated in May 2026. Scottish Labour, meanwhile, would return just 19 MSPs, two more than Reform UK and the Greens at 17. Meanwhile, the Conservatives would have 11 MSPs and the LibDems five.
That result would result in a huge pro-independence majority of 77 MSPs.
Asked about these results, Curtice told The National newspaper that this poll largely confirms what previous ones have suggested.
“Before yesterday’s poll, the average of more recent polls was Reform and Labour neck and neck. And yes, basically, there’s still nothing in this poll to suggest that that’s any different other than that,” he said.
“The Scottish Greens are also in the race for second place – at least in terms of seats.
“But it does underline the way in which Labour north of the Border are vulnerable to Reform, because if you get into the detail of the tables – once you take the don’t knows out – you’ve got a slightly higher proportion of 2024 Labour voters switching to Reform than 2024 Conservative voters.”
The leading pollster said that is the first time he has seen that particular phenomenon, adding that the question the poll also asked – but didn’t really answer – is whether or not English Green Party leader Zack Polanski is making any difference north of the border.
He added that the poll suggests that the SNP are not currently advancing.
“The SNP have only got around two-thirds of the pro-independence vote. It also shows very clear that the party that’s doing the most damage to the SNP on the constituency vote in terms of picking up Yes supporters are the Greens.”
Curtice concluded: “We seem to be continuing to roll inevitably towards a Holyrood parliament where the SNP are going to be dominant.
“They’re probably not going to be quite as numerous as they are at the moment, where there is probably going to be a pro-independence majority and the Green numbers in Ipsos’s data on the list obviously matters here.
“We’re looking at a deeply fragmented opposition and we’re not quite sure who is going to be the largest of the opposition parties.”