by BILL HEANEY
The Scottish Conservatives will lead a debate tomorrow (Wednesday) in Holyrood to warn of another SNP “tax bombshell” that could hit middle-income earners in Scotland.
Finance and social security spokesman Craig Hoy will highlight new party analysis showing that those paying the SNP’s higher rate of income tax could face income tax hikes of almost £5,000 more annually.
The analysis shows that if John Swinney and his ministers were to plug the projected £5 billion gap in Scotland’s finances through income tax increases alone, every Scots taxpayer would be hit with an additional bill of £1,420 each year.
However, due to Swinney’s pledge to keep the median Scottish taxpayer paying less income tax than they would in the rest of the UK, the vast majority of the burden would ultimately fall on those earning more than £43,663.
To raise the amount required to plug the SNP’s funding gap, the near one million taxpayers on the higher rate and above, who will make up the majority of full-time workers, would have to each contribute an extra £4,853.41.
The Scottish Conservatives will also call on the SNP and other parties to back their calls to rule out any further tax rises.
Craig Hoy says that Swinney cannot “tax his way to economic growth” and must instead bring down the funding gap by cutting his ballooning benefits bill and finally making Scotland’s bloated public sector more efficient.
Scottish Conservative finance spokesman Craig Hoy MSP, right, said: “Hard-working Scots are already forced to pay the highest taxes in the United Kingdom under the SNP.
“Our terrifying new analysis has now revealed a potential new tax bombshell that is on the way from John Swinney.
“If he is planning on plugging the £5billion funding gap in Scotland’s finances through income tax hikes alone, then every Scot is in line for a huge income tax hike.
“But those in middle Scotland would be once again disproportionately hit. Those who have been dragged into paying higher rates of income tax under the nationalists could face paying almost £5,000 more in income tax alone.
“Tax rises on this scale are not inevitable. But the fact they are even a possibility is the result of two decades of staggering economic incompetence from the SNP.
“John Swinney cannot keep taxing his way to economic growth. If they are serious about plugging the huge funding gap they are responsible for, then they must finally back our calls to rein in their ballooning benefits bill and finally make Scotland’s bloated public sector more efficient.
“I hope other parties will join us this week in agreeing that there should be no further income tax rises and for the SNP to finally prioritise growing Scotland’s economy.”
There is a £4.770 billion funding gap in 2029-30. The Scottish Government projected a resource gap of £2.624 billion and a capital gap of £2.146 billion in 2029-30. Added together, these give the £4.770 billion annual gap used in both scenarios. (Scotland’s Fiscal Outlook: Medium-Term Financial Strategy 2025, 25 June 2025, link).
The 2029-30 baseline contains 3,358,982 Scottish Income Tax taxpayers. The SFC forecast 432,888 Starter-rate taxpayers, 1,192,827 Basic-rate taxpayers, 756,016 Intermediate-rate taxpayers, 731,575 Higher-rate taxpayers, 185,953 Advanced-rate taxpayers and 59,722 Top-rate taxpayers. (Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – January 2026, 11 February 2026, link).
Under Scenario 1, the average additional annual bill is £1,420. This is the amount that each person would have to pay if the £4.77 billion funding gap was covered equally by each of the 3,358,982 taxpayers. (Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – January 2026, 11 February 2026, link).
In Scenario 2, the SNP keep the median taxpayer paying less than the UK. The Scottish Fiscal Commission estimates median gross non-savings, non-dividend income of £31,150 in 2026-27. Applying its forecast nominal earnings growth of 2.7% in 2027-28, 2.7% in 2028-29 and 2.8% in 2029-30 increases that to about £33,775. The Scottish Government has committed to keeping more than half of taxpayers paying less Income Tax than in the rest of the UK; in 2026-27 it estimates that people earning below around £33,500, around 55% of taxpayers, will pay less. (Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – January 2026, 11 February 2026, link; Scottish Income Tax 2026 to 2027: technical factsheet, 13 January 2026, link).
Keeping the median taxpayer at least £1 better off than in the rest of the UK leaves only about £9 a year of additional tax that can be placed on the median taxpayer. Spreading that headroom evenly across the Starter, Basic and Intermediate rates allows an increase of only about 0.043 percentage points in each of those rates, raising about £26.8 million. The remaining £4.743 billion then has to be raised from the Higher, Advanced and Top rates. An equal increase across those three rates is about 30.9 percentage points, taking them to approximately 72.9%, 75.9% and 78.9% respectively. (Scottish Budget 2026 to 2027: Scottish tax ready reckoners, 13 January 2026, link; Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – January 2026, 11 February 2026, link; Scottish Income Tax 2026 to 2027: technical factsheet, 13 January 2026, link).
Under Scenario 2, the average additional annual bill for those on the higher rate or above is £4,850. This estimate takes the £4.743 billion funding gap and divides it by the 977,250 taxpayers on the higher rate and above in 2029-30 to find that each would have to contribute £4,853.41 in order to cover the gap.
Well to me its dead simple. Most of our productive industry and essential services have been sold off and is now owned by international offshore financial interests.
Electricity generation and transmission, ports, airports, water, gas, oil, the list goes on and on as the profits get siphoned off.
And then there’s the less obvious plunder. The Private Finance Initiative where roads, schools, hospitals to mention but a few classes of infrastructure are in essence owned by offshore commercial interests.
And with the corruption so extant in every aspect of our UK economy its no surprise that the poor donkey working class are destined to pay ever more tax.
A root and branch revolution is needed. But will it happen or will vested commercial interest prevail.. Maybe Labour’s Peter Mandelson could advise?
Otherwise for the few who have filled their boots they will continue to do so. As they are now doing in a poor energy deprived country called Scotland where wind and hydro storage is making it the ‘Saudi Arabia’ of renewable wind energy now producing much much more energy than the country needs.
Funny tht when Scotland has some of the highest electricity costs in Europe.
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