More than two months into an invasion that has flattened cities but failed to capture the capital Kyiv, Russia has mounted a push to seize two eastern provinces in a battle the West views as a decisive turning point in the war.

“The enemy is increasing the pace of the offensive operation. The Russian occupiers are exerting intense fire in almost all directions,” Ukraine’s military command said of the situation on the main front in the east.

It said Russia’s main attack was near the towns of Slobozhanske and Donets, along a strategic frontline highway linking Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv with the Russian-occupied city of Izyum. The Kharkiv regional governor said Russian forces were intensifying attacks from Izyum, but Ukrainian troops were holding their ground. Although Russian forces were pushed out of northern Ukraine last month, they are heavily entrenched in the east and also still hold a swathe of the south that they seized in March.

Ukraine said there were strong explosions overnight in the southern city of Kherson, the only regional capital Russia has captured since the invasion. Russian troops there used tear gas and stun grenades on Wednesday to suppress pro-Ukrainian demonstrations, and were now shelling the entire surrounding region and attacking towards Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.

Kyiv accuses Moscow of planning to stage a fake independence referendum in the occupied south. Russian state media quoted an official from a self-styled pro-Russian “military-civilian commission” in Kherson on Thursday as saying the area would start using Russia’s rouble currency from May 1st.

Proxy war

Western countries have ramped up weapons deliveries to Ukraine in recent days as the fighting in the east has intensified. More than 40 countries met this week at a US air base in Germany and pledged to send heavy arms such as artillery for what is expected to be a vast battle of opposing armies along a heavily fortified front line.

Washington now says it hopes Ukrainian forces can not only repel Russia’s assault on the east, but weaken its military so that it can no longer threaten neighbours.

Russia says that amounts to Nato waging “proxy war” against it. “If someone intends to intervene in the ongoing events from the outside, and create strategic threats for Russia that are unacceptable to us, they should know that our retaliatory strikes will be lightning-fast,” Mr Putin told lawmakers in St Petersburg.

“We have all the tools for this, things no one else can boast of having now. And we will not boast, we will use them if necessary. And I want everyone to know that.”

British defence secretary Ben Wallace said Mr Putin’s remarks were a sign of “almost desperation, trying to broaden this either with threats or indeed, with potential false flags or attacks”.

“Having failed in nearly all his objectives,” Mr Putin was now seeking to consolidate control of occupied territory, Mr Wallace said. “Just be a sort of cancerous growth within the country in Ukraine and make it very hard for people to move them out of those fortified positions.”

Gas

US president Joe Biden is expected to deliver remarks on Thursday in support of Ukrainians, the White House said. While Russia presses its military assault in eastern and southern Ukraine, its economic battle with the west threatens gas supplies to Europe and is battering the Russian economy.

On Wednesday, Moscow halted gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria for refusing to pay for supplies in roubles, its first big retaliatory strike against sanctions.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called the move “blackmail”. “The sooner everyone in Europe recognises that they cannot depend on Russia for trade, the sooner it will be possible to guarantee stability in European markets,” Mr Zelenskiy said in an overnight address.

France will host a meeting of EU energy ministers on May 2nd.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia remained a reliable energy supplier and denied it was engaging in blackmail.

He declined to say how many countries had agreed to pay for gas in roubles but other European customers said gas supplies were flowing normally.

Sanctions are taking a heavy toll on Russia, with its economy ministry indicating in a document the economy could shrink by as much as 12.4 per cent this year.

Steel works

Ukrainian troops are still holed up in a giant steel works in Mariupol, the ruined southeastern port where thousands of people have died under two months of Russian siege and bombardment. Mr Putin claimed victory in the city last week, ordering the steel works blockaded.

Kyiv has pleaded for a ceasefire to let civilians and wounded soldiers escape. “As long as we’re here and holding the defence . . the city is not theirs,” Captain Sviatoslav Palamar, deputy commander of Ukraine’s Azov Regiment, told Reuters in video link from an undisclosed location beneath the huge factory.

“The tactic is like a medieval siege. We’re encircled, they are no longer throwing lots of forces to break our defensive line. They’re conducting air strikes.”

More than 5 million refugees have fled abroad since Russia launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine on February 24th. Moscow says its aim is to disarm its neighbour and defeat nationalists there. The West calls that a bogus pretext for a war of aggression.

Chamberlain questions minister over ‘broken’ Ukrainian visa system

By Democrat reporter

Scottish LibDem MP Wendy Chamberlain has questioned the UK migration minister over the situation facing Ukrainian refugees seeking to come to the UK. She secured an urgent question over numerous concerns about the operation of Visa Application Centres. She also raised the case of two children who have finally been granted permission to come to North East Fife more than a month after their family first applied.

Under the ‘Homes for Ukraine’ scheme, Ukrainian refugees with passports are required to have biometric tests carried out before they can travel to the UK. The vast majority of those who have to go through this process are young children who do not yet have their own passports.

These checks take place at Visa Application Centres which are operated by a private company under a Home Office contract. Even before the war in Ukraine, an inspection found that these centres had issues in meeting targets for the speed of application, inadequate support for vulnerable applicants, and a lack of transparency from the Home Office.

Wendy Chamberlain’s staff have assisted more than fifty refugees who have applied to come to the UK, many of whom have faced extensive problems with the VACs’ processing of applications. There have been extensive delays for appointments and decision-making, wrong information has been provided to families causing unnecessary distress and confusion, families have been called for appointments only to be sent away again often without adequate explanation, basic errors have made in relation to applicant details sometimes on multiple occasions, and applications have been apparently lost with no information on how or what has happened to them.

Ms Chamberlain, pictured, raised the case of two Ukrainian children, Sofia and Kirill who are 4 and 12-years-old. They and their family have been sponsored under the ‘Homes for Ukraine’ scheme by a couple living in North East Fife. The children experienced significant trauma from the devastation they saw in Ukraine.

Their family submitted their visa applications in mid-March, but the children’s visas were only granted yesterday, weeks after the adults in their group were given permission to travel. They made three visits to a VAC, each time waiting for hours before being sent away. Both children were issued incorrect documentation which had to be reprocessed. Throughout this time the family were moving between temporary accommodation.

Wendy Chamberlain added: “I am glad that Sofia, Kirill, and their family are now finally able to come to the UK. But like far too many they unacceptably long wait for visa applications to be processed.

“The VACs are not providing anywhere near the service required by but the Home Office seems unable to do anything about it. My staff and I made representations to senior Home Office officials, including via the minister for refugees. Even they could not get answers, with one official admitting that this was not the service that should be expected at a basic level, never mind for families fleeing war.

“The minister’s response to my urgent question was unacceptable and tone-deaf, referring to the Ukrainian refugees who have applied as ‘customers’. He failed to answer the specific points I put to him. He didn’t address the concerns that I raised and instead talked about the future of the immigration system. The reality is that this is about helping desperate people fleeing war now. The government needs to take their head out of the sand and acknowledge that the current system is broken.”

Top picture: Body bags piling up outside a Ukrainian military centre.