Virus hasn’t gone away you know. Risk in UK lockdown easing too soon, warn scientists

The search for a vaccine goes on while the Lockdown has been lifted.

By Democrat reporter

Scientific advisers to the government have warned of the risk of lifting the lockdown in England, as the UK begins the final weekend before rules change.

Professor John Edmunds said it was a “political decision” to ease measures; Sir Jeremy Farrar said the NHS test and trace system should be “fully working”.

From Monday schools will reopen in England and up to six people can meet in England, with other nations also easing measures.

The government said it had followed the data and evidence at all times.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which advises the government, including Scotland, has published details of its confidential meetings.

It includes minutes of 34 Sage sessions, going back to 22 January, and a series of scientific reports.

They show one Sage meeting on 23 April estimated there would be only 1,000 cases per day by mid-May.

Instead, estimates by the Office for National Statistics suggest there are currently 8,000 cases per day in England alone. Those figures do not include cases in care homes or hospitals.

Prof Edmunds, from the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine and a member of Sage, said the levels of coronavirus were still “very high” and many scientists would rather the number of cases declined before measures were relaxed.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of Sage, said on Twitter that Covid-19 is “spreading too fast to lift lockdown in England” and NHS test and trace “has to be fully working and infection rates have to be lower”.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Prof Peter Horby, who sits on Sage and chairs its NERVTAG subcommittee, agreed, saying the R number was still close to one and it was important we “don’t lose control”.

“What I would say is that returning to a situation where we lost control again is far worse than another week or two of social measures,” he said.

A fourth Sage member, Prof Calum Semple, said a “brave” political decision had been made to coincide with when schools were due to reopen “were everything normal”, but warned that high levels of transmission were still being seen.

“Essentially we’re lifting the lid on a boiling pan and it’s just going to bubble over,” he said. “We need to get it down to simmer before we take the lift off, and it’s too early.”

The Sage documents warned there would be “little time” to reimpose stricter lockdown measures if the infection rate started to creep up again.

Epidemiologist Prof Sian Griffiths told BBC Breakfast that if scientists were in charge of decisions, lockdown would probably not be eased currently, but she said there were other factors to consider.

“I would say there is a huge amount of stress and strain which goes along with not being able to see your friends and your family and that to be able to see them, albeit at a distance, may actually help people’s mental health and may help them live with lockdown better and may help them comply better,” she said.

Prof Sally Bloomfield, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, warned against having a barbecue with guests, saying the virus could be present on bottles, cutlery and other objects. Picnics where people brought their own food were a better option, she said.

One method of managing the easing of lockdown would be to give people a Covid risk score which would account for age, gender, ethnicity and health conditions, according to Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter – chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.

“And that means I think we’re going to need some sort of individualised Covid risk score that can be used in that way, to group people according to their risk, and then that would be advisory, and if people wanted to move, and they protected other people, then that would be open to them,” he said.

A Number 10 spokesperson said the government had “at all times been informed by the data and evidence”, and the measures has been carefully designed “so that we can ease the burdens of lockdown while expecting to keep that R below one”.

It comes as police forces in England have warned people to take care in busy areas and beauty spots and as a fine weekend of weather is forecast.

Each of the UK’s nations has a different approach – and timescale – to lifting the lockdown on Monday.

UK rules on meeting up
Presentational white space

England is the only nation to reopen primary schools to selected year groups on Monday and will allow groups of up to six to meet outside.

In Scotland, two separate households – up to a maximum of eight people – can meet outdoors and in Northern Ireland, groups of up to six people who do not live together can meet outdoors.

In Wales, any number of people from two different households will be able to meet each other outside from Monday, but beauty spots will remain closed.

Dominic Cummings and Theresa May.

The warnings come as former Prime Minister Theresa May wrote to her constituents saying Boris Johnson’s chief adviser Dominic Cummings did not “follow the spirit” of the lockdown guidance.

In March Mr Cummings drove more than 260 miles from London to County Durham with his wife, who had coronavirus symptoms, at a time when the public was being told to “stay home”.

He also made a 50-mile round-trip to Barnard Castle 15 days later – a journey which police said might have broken lockdown rules.

Mrs May said in a letter to her constituents in Maidenhead, Berkshire, that she can “well understand the anger” of people who had obeyed the guidance.

On Friday, Chancellor Rishi Sunak set out how the UK’s coronavirus furlough scheme will finish at the end of October.

In other developments:

  • Some vulnerable people have been told they have been removed from shielding lists via text message, without the knowledge of their GP
  • Renters are more likely to be struggling with payments than those who own their own homes, research from the Resolution Foundation suggests
  • Restaurant employees at Debenhams say they will be made redundant at the end of the month as the chain’s struggles continue
  • Greece is to open up to tourists from 29 countries in two weeks’ time but not to those travelling from the UK

One comment

  1. The danger in all of this is that the health response determined by the scientists may be being disregarded to fit the economic agenda.

    It certainly goes without saying that the initial governmental response was to let the virus spread to develop a herd immunity, protect the economy, and too bad if a few pensioners die.

    Problem of course was that if this policy had not been abruptly ended with lockdown the UK would have been submerged under a tidal wave of death.

    And so, with the lifting of lockdown without a track and trace programme being in place the intemperate and incompetent government of Johnson may be back on the same economic agenda. The eminent scientists who have broken ranks to say so certainly think so.

    Indeed, with the Johnson – Cummings axis having done so much to undermine public health the message of the need for prophylactic distancing and other measures, will folks actually listen. Sadly, maybe not as we maybe head back to the future.

    Me I had a big drink last night, and thus, in line with the Dominic Cummings way of doing things, I am off for a test drive with my wife and children to see if I’m sober to drive. And too bad if I run down a few pensioners.

Leave a Reply